With Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL-13) giving up his congressional seat to run for governor, and with the Republican-controlled state legislature set to draw boundaries on a new congressional district after the 2020 census, the GOP is looking to Florida to make gains in the U.S. House in 2022.
Crist, the former Republican governor of the state, currently represents a district encompassing St. Petersburg and Clearwater in Pinellas County.
FL-13 is considered a pivot district, and the Cook Partisan Voter Index, which measures in which direction congressional districts lean, says that Democrats have only a two point advantage there.
Republicans made strong gains in the U.S. House in Florida in 2020, flipping two seats from blue to red, and with Crist’s district in striking distance, they look to continue that trend.
In 2020, Anna Paulina Luna won the crowded Republican primary. The pro-Trump Air Force veteran raised three million dollars in her bid against Crist, and lost by only six points. She has already declared her 2022 bid, along with two Democrats.
“The race to replace Crist is still developing, but two high-profile Democrats, state Rep. Ben Diamond and Obama-era national security adviser Eric Lynn, have already announced bids,” according to Roll Call.
Historically, the party opposite the incumbent president makes strong gains in Congress during the first midterm election after a presidential year, setting Republicans up for victory in 2022 after President Joe Biden’s 2020 win.
The GOP-controlled state legislature will also have the opportunity to draw a completely new congressional district. The state was awarded a new district after its population growth was reflected by the 2020 census.
Further, there might be an opportunity for Republicans to flip a third seat in their direction.
“Yet another competitive district, the Orlando-area 7th, could open up if Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy makes a long-anticipated announcement that she will challenge Marco Rubio for his Senate seat,” Roll Call reports.
Democrats only hold an eight seat advantage in the House, though there are five vacancies to be filled before the 2022 election.
One of those vacancies is in Florida’s 20th district, a seat formerly held by the late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) who passed away in April. That seat is expected to be held by Democrats in an election that will take place in January 2022.
Of the four other vacancies to be filled before the 2022 November elections, two seats in Ohio, one in Texas, and one in New Mexico, Republicans are expected to win two seats, and Democrats are expected to win the other two.
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Pete D’Abrosca is a contributor at The Florida Capital Star and The Star News Network. Follow Pete on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Charlie Crist” by Mike Cohen CC 2.0.
